An article by Dr. Gerardo Chowell, professor of mathematical epidemiology in the concentration of epidemiology & biostatistics at Georgia State University School of Public Health, and Georgia State doctoral student Ms. Amna Tariq, entitled “A novel sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic waves,”was recently published in BMC Medicine’s spatial epidemiology research collection.
In the article, the researchers develop and apply a novel sub-epidemic modeling framework that supports a diversity of epidemic trajectories including stable incidence patterns with sustained or damped oscillations to better understand and forecast epidemic outbreaks. They describe how to forecast an epidemic based on the premise that the observed coarse-scale incidence can be decomposed into overlapping sub–epidemics at finer scales. The team evaluate their modeling framework using three outbreak datasets: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Singapore, plague in Madagascar, and the ongoing Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and four performance metrics.
Based on the model in this article, the team, in collaboration with Dr. James “Mac” Hyman of Tulane University, produces short-term forecasts of the weekly incidence trend of the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
An updated Ebola incidence forecast of the epidemic, also based on the World Health Organization’s External Situation Reports, is published weekly.Friday Letter Submission, Publish on September 13