The second phase of Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security’s Collective Intelligence for Disease Prediction project launched July 1, and volunteer predictors are needed to answer a set of forecasting questions on a weekly basis through December.
The project gathers, analyzes, and disseminates collective intelligence from public health experts and expert predictors about the outcomes of potentially significant public health events.
Over 560 predictors participated in the first phase from January through June 2019.
Participation is open to public health experts, doctors, epidemiologists, modelers, risk experts, vector control officials, individuals with on-the-ground understanding of conditions surrounding disease outbreaks, and others who are interested in outbreaks. Participants who make accurate predictions are eligible for a prize.
Throughout the project, the Center analyzes forecasting data from participants. All data collected will be used for research purposes and will not reveal any individually identifiable information.
The system — built on Lumenogic’s Prescience platform — records each participant’s latest forecast on every question. When a question is closed, the system computes the accuracy of each participant’s forecasts on that question, then compares it to the accuracy of other participants.
A live leaderboard is accessible to anyone registered for the project through the online platform, where more information on purpose, methods, scoring, and prizes is available.
The project is supported by funding from the Open Philanthropy Project.Friday Letter Submission, Publish on July 12