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Member Research & Reports

Member Research & Reports

Johns Hopkins: New Tool Predicts Five-Year Risk of Chronic Kidney Disease

A new risk calculator tool that uses a mix of variables including age, hypertension, and diabetes status can be used to predict accurately whether someone is likely to develop chronic kidney disease within five years. The risk calculator tool was developed by the Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium, a large global collaboration led by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

The risk calculator, described in a paper published online November 8 in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), is based on an analysis of clinical data from more than five million people around the world. The researchers found risk equations that identify with high-accuracy individuals who are at risk for developing chronic kidney disease within five years. This was also true for new clinical populations used to validate the results.

Chronic kidney disease is defined as having blood-filtering capacity by the kidneys below half of normal, and is diagnosed and monitored by measuring protein levels in the urine.

“We’ll be making our risk calculators available at our website,,” says Dr. Josef Coresh, Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium co-principal investigator and the George W. Comstock Professor in the Bloomberg School’s department of epidemiology. In this way, patient advocacy organizations—such as the National Kidney Foundation, which helped sponsor the research—can also help disseminate these new risk-prediction tools. The other co-principal investigator for the Consortium is Morgan Grams, MD, an associate professor in nephrology at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine.

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